Headline: Macron reforms will boost eurozone, says poll of economists
Sub-headline: Most experts predict growth of 2.3% in 2018 despite Italy election risks
The reader of this ‘news story’ framed by the notion that Macron’s reforms will impact the EU , while it is still engaging in Quantitative Easing i.e. ‘mass bond buying‘: wasn’t this strategy reserved for ’emergency situations’? Where might the Economic Theology of The Self -Correcting Market stand in the face of the continued policy of Quantitative Easing? Have I entered the arena of the Heretical? Is the economic health of the EU being propped up by this ‘mass bond buying’ ? The questions represent an infinite regress?
Aside from what Macron might offer in terms of French economic reform, in sum, its Neo-Liberlization, to bolster the EU, Mr. Gallo thinks 2018 will be shaped by ‘the combination of political stability, fiscal stimulus and stimulative monetary policy.” ‘ Such is the state of Capital in the EU that it needs, or more likely demands, a continuing state intervention to prop it up. To assure its members and citizens that all is well? An economic/political analgesic?
An overwhelming majority also thought 2018 would be the year when the ECB ended its quantitative easing programme of mass bond buying. A significant minority of 34 per cent thought growth would be strong enough for the central bank to end QE — which is about to enter its fourth year — in September.The expectation of an end to QE came even though inflation was expected to remain weak, at 1.5 per cent — short of the central bank’s target of close to 2 per cent.Alberto Gallo, a portfolio manager and head of macro strategy at Algebris Investments, a fund, said: “The recovery will accelerate in 2018 on the combination of political stability, fiscal stimulus and stimulative monetary policy.”
This report is based on the opinions of ’34 economists’. The pressing question who are these technocrats. The reader knows Mr. Gallo, yet it is apparent that he is outside of ‘The 34’!
Or are these carefully framed comments from other Technocrats who are or are not part of the elect of ‘The 34’ is of what value?
Mr Macron’s economic agenda would be “the single most important reason for the continued eurozone recovery in 2018”, said André Sapir, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank, and a professor at Université Libre de Bruxelles.
…
Laurence Boone, chief economist at Axa Investment Managers, said the most important short-term impact of Mr Macron’s reforms was their “wow” factor — halting the populist anti-euro wave and spurring confidence in the French appetite for reform.
…
“I would see another grand coalition as a positive development,” said Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy. “Admittedly, the implications for businesses would be less positive than those of a coalition involving the FDP. But tax cuts for households, particularly on lower incomes, should help to support consumer spending growth within Germany. Meanwhile, a relatively open stance towards eurozone reform and fiscal integration would bode well for the stability of the region as a whole.”
…
“A new grand coalition would not fundamentally change its policy stance and it would also not be willing to make major steps towards more integration in the eurozone,” said Peter Bofinger, a professor at Würzburg university and a member of the German Council of Economic Experts.
…
“A new grand coalition would not fundamentally change its policy stance and it would also not be willing to make major steps towards more integration in the eurozone,” said Peter Bofinger, a professor at Würzburg university and a member of the German Council of Economic Experts.
…
Philippe Legrain, a senior visiting fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute, said: “The Italian elections could lead to the formation of a government hostile to euro membership that reawakens fears about the integrity of the euro and the sustainability of Italian government debt.
My question is answered about who ‘The 34’ are- see the 13 points linked to this essay to see who contributed, to each of the questions posed by The Financial Times . But note that this particular essay features the opinions of three Think Tank technos, one consultant and two academics.
Old Socialist
https://www.ft.com/content/cfb03d8c-ea55-11e7-bd17-521324c81e23
StephenKMackSD's Blog 