Bret Stephens & Sheryl Sandberg defend ‘The Tribe’ @NYT. ‘Jewish Victimhood’ never grows old!(Revised)

Political Observer provides the pertinent data!

While the Genocide and enforced Famine continues in Gaza, and the attack on Rafah awaits, Bret Stephens and Sheryl Sandberg sound the alarm on ‘Anti-Semitism’.

There is a scene in “Screams Before Silence,” the harrowing documentary about the rape and mutilation of Israeli women on Oct. 7, that I can’t get out of my head. It’s an interview that the former Facebook chief operating officer There is a scene in “Screams Before Silence,” the harrowing documentary about the rape and mutilation of Israeli women on Oct. 7, that I can’t get out of my head. It’s an interview that the former Facebook chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg, the documentary’s presenter, conducted with Ayelet Levy Sachar, the documentary’s presenter, conducted with Ayelet Levy Sachar,…

Why? “People are so polarized that they want every fact to fit into a narrative, and if their narrative is resistance, then sexual violence doesn’t fit into that narrative,” Sandberg told me when I met her in New York last Thursday, hours before the documentary’s premiere at The Times Center. “You can believe that Gaza is happening because Israel has no choice; you can believe that Gaza is happening because Israel wants to kill babies. You can hold either one of those thoughts. And you should also be able to hold the thought that sexual violence is unacceptable, no matter what.”

“I’ve spent my life, obviously, building businesses,” Sandberg told me toward the end of our interview. “And separately I’ve spent a lot of my life fighting for women. And I never thought I was going to work on antisemitism. I didn’t think it was a problem, and I was absolutely wrong. And I never thought that politics could make any group or feminist leader turn a blind eye to just such clear documentation of sexual violence.”

Political Observer

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The Electronic Intifada

Debunking “Screams Before Silence,” Sheryl Sandberg’s 7 October “mass rape” film, with Ali Abunimah

Political Observer

Thank you The Electronic Intifada !!

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janan.ganesh@ft.com postulates that the political mediocrity Joe Biden is the way forward!

Political Observer recalls Obama’s praise for Ronald Reagan, as ‘The Transformational President’, while FDR remained in the shadow of that Hollywood has-been!

The reader needs, must consider what planet Janan Ganesh resides! This ‘essay’ on Joe is History Made To Measure ‘we can write it in exponent form as x2’

The first paragraphs are indicative of the ‘Ganesh Historical Methodology’


There are three things that Joe Biden cannot shake off: his Secret Service guards, his own shadow and the phrase “ . . . since Lyndon Johnson”. He is described as the most consequential Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson. He is said to have brought about the largest expansion of the federal government since Lyndon Johnson. The historical comparison is meant well. In fact, it undersells him.

In turning ideas into statute, LBJ had lavish advantages. Democrats outnumbered Republicans around two-to-one in both houses of Congress for much of the 1960s. Having replaced the slain John F Kennedy, he began with the nation’s goodwill, and could present his reforms as his predecessor’s unfinished work. Biden had neither the numbers nor the moral head-start. Still, last week, the Ukraine aid package joined the American Rescue Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act and a vast infrastructure splurge in Biden’s canon of important (or at least expensive) laws.

What are we to learn from this prolific doer of things? What, as we near its end, is the lesson of this startlingly fertile presidential term?

For those of us who who were adults at the time, Mr. Ganesh’s political portrait of LBJ, represents not just a failed attempt to make Joe Biden and LBJ, as somehow sharing the same political imperatives! Mr. Ganesh is not familiar with Billie Sol Estes nor Abe Fortas!

Joe Biden is a Neo-Liberal: not the etiolated remains of the New Deal: Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act (1965) were the belated, unfinished business of that hallowed New Frontier of Kennedy. While not forgetting LBJ’s ‘Guns And Butter’! nor the careers of the war mongers McGeorge Bundy and William Bundy, or Robert S. McNamara. Kai Bird’s book is the kind of political education that Janan Ganesh has no interest in exploring:

Ganesh is a apologist/ propagandist for senile Old Joe, as the political savior against the Political Monster Donald Trump. Though he makes no appearance in this defence of Biden. Yet Biden in Ganesh’s telling is not an exemplar of what might be considered political virtues:

One thing above all: eloquence is overrated. So is charisma, vision-setting and all the other “performance” aspects of politics. Biden was an average-to-poor communicator even before his age-related deterioration. He has no signature speech or even epigram to show for half a century in frontline politics. What he does have is more inside experience of Washington — its details, its unwritten codes — than any president ever. The result is a one-term legacy that exceeds what such silver-tongues as Bill Clinton managed in two.

Here is Joe’s signature speech, that has eluded the grasp of Ganesh:

Joe Biden in 1993 Speech talks of “Predators” on our streets

The above paragraph doesn’t quite qualify as faint praise. The Reader might wonder what it is! Perhaps the strangled voice of a would-be novelist? Or a writer traying to meet his deadline!

The fact is that Ganesh trades upon ‘leadership’ invested in the very thing that he inveigh against!

Samples:

Biden understood, as his more outwardly gifted predecessors didn’t always, the importance of face. Something else, too: he can count.

A leader can’t be so presentationally inept as to be unelectable. But once that low standard is met, there are diminishing returns to star power.

Their nation-changing qualities — stamina, focus, certitude — were in the private side of politics, which is most of politics.

 Liberals need to hear this more than most. American ones in particular can be crashing snobs about education and speech. In The West Wing, they got to create their ideal president. The result? A hyper-articulate Yankee Brahmin.

But the ultimate beneficiary of this liberal obsession with rhetoric was Barack Obama. It wasn’t even profound rhetoric. “In no other country on Earth is my story even possible.”

 Biden is to Obama what Johnson was to Kennedy.

… 

But the perception of what constitutes a leader never caught up. Because people overvalue what they themselves are good at, the educated politico-media class overvalues eloquence. 

I say all this as no particular admirer of Biden’s domestic bills. If he loses re-election, the culprit will be inflation, to which his spending has probably contributed. His protectionism almost guarantees immense waste and fragments the world trade order that allowed the postwar US to bind countries to it.

 Still, there are other moments to discuss how Biden uses his political skill. Just recognise that skill, and how little it relies on words. If a “great” leader is one who changes things, for better or not, this is an administration of mumbling, tongue-tied greatness.

Political Observer

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On the question: Is @tomfriedman a would be ‘American Diplomat’ , or an advocate/apologist for the Zionist Faschist State?

Political Observer on Friedman’s 2,019 word intervention.

‘writing from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’ is attached to this ‘essay’ as the in order to of impressing the Times readership? Mr. Friedman, and his newspaper, self-present as not just the ‘last word’ on International Affaires but the sine qua non of such reportage! This rambling essay begins with these four paragraphs:

U.S. diplomacy to end the Gaza war and forge a new relationship with Saudi Arabia has been converging in recent weeks into a single giant choice for Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: What do you want more — Rafah or Riyadh?

Do you want to mount a full-scale invasion of Rafah to try to finish off Hamas — if that is even possible — without offering any Israeli exit strategy from Gaza or any political horizon for a two-state solution with non-Hamas-led Palestinians? If you go this route, it will only compound Israel’s global isolation and force a real breach with the Biden administration.

Or do you want normalization with Saudi Arabia, an Arab peacekeeping force for Gaza and a U.S.-led security alliance against Iran? This would come with a different price: a commitment from your government to work toward a Palestinian state with a reformed Palestinian Authority — but with the benefit of embedding Israel in the widest U.S.-Arab-Israeli defense coalition the Jewish state has ever enjoyed and the biggest bridge to the rest of the Muslim world Israel has ever been offered, while creating at least some hope that the conflict with the Palestinians will not be a “forever war.’’

This is one of the most fateful choices Israel has ever had to make. And what I find both disturbing and depressing is that there is no major Israeli leader today in the ruling coalition, the opposition or the military who is consistently helping Israelis understand that choice — a global pariah or a Middle East partner — or explaining why it should choose the second.

Its a kind of low grade political melodrama, that sends his bourgeois readership into fits of near adoration? His location, Riyadh, and his proximity to power, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who appears later in the essay, lends credibility ?

The next paragraph offers a Friedmann an ‘understanding mood’:

I appreciate how traumatized Israelis are by the vicious Hamas murders, rapes and kidnappings of Oct. 7. It is not surprising to me that many people there just want revenge, and their hearts have hardened to a degree that they can’t see or care about all of the civilians, including thousands of children, who have been killed in Gaza as Israel has plowed through to try to eliminate Hamas. All of this has been further hardened by Hamas’s refusal so far to release the remaining hostages.

Followed by this paragraph steeped in admonition:

But revenge is not a strategy. It is pure insanity that Israel is now more than six months into this war and the Israeli military leadership — and virtually the entire political class — has allowed Netanyahu to continue to pursue a “total victory” there, including probably soon plunging deep into Rafah, without any exit plan or Arab partner lined up to step in once the war ends. If Israel ends up with an indefinite occupation of both Gaza and the West Bank, it would be a toxic military, economic and moral overstretch that would delight Israel’s most dangerous foe, Iran, and repel all its allies in the West and the Arab world.

The Reader searches in vain for any mention of the Zionist Genocide and Famine in Gaza! Friedman is playacting the part of the ‘Peace Maker’ , the unofficial American Ambassador, with strong ties to Biden, and perhaps acting as his proxy? Enough of the Friedman self-congratulatory chatter, the last paragraphs of Freidman’s essay:

The Biden team wants to complete the U.S.-Saudi part of the deal so that it can act like the opposition party that Israel does not have right now and be able to say to Netanyahu: You can be remembered as the leader who presided over Israel’s worst military catastrophe on Oct. 7 or the leader who led Israel out of Gaza and opened the road to normalization between Israel and the most important Muslim state. Your choice. And it wants to offer this choice publicly so that every Israeli can see it.

So let me end where I began: Israel’s long-term interests are in Riyadh, not Rafah. Of course, neither is a sure thing and both come with risks. And I know that it’s not so easy for Israelis to weigh them when so many global protesters these days are hammering Israel for its bad behavior in Gaza and giving Hamas a free pass. But that’s what leaders are for: to make the case that the road to Riyadh has a much bigger payoff at the end than the road to Rafah, which will be a dead end in every sense of the term.

I totally respect that Israelis are the ones who will have to live with the choice. I just want to make sure they know they have one.

Mr. Friedman is a maladroit paternalist, as the sentence I’ve placed in bold font, demonstrates!

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I’ll offer this video of Netanyahu’s latest pronouncement on American political/civic life:

Political Observer

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Constanze Stelzenmüller & Financial Times reporters Lauren Fedor & James Politi, on the Mike Johnson Political Moment, as it devolves into Yesterdays News!

Political Observer on the the unhappy marriage of Politics & Theology!

Don’t relax, Europe — the US hard right isn’t finished yet

Ultraconservative Americans have views about the old continent that would dismay most Europeans

Constanze Stelzenmüller

https://www.ft.com/content/a9e85226-0946-4b09-b755-6b44d885c677

At the weekend, Congress finally unblocked the $61bn Ukraine aid bill, and sighs of relief were heard across European capitals, where anxious policymakers had for months been reading up on arcane details of congressional procedure. But they should not relax just yet. And not just because those dollars still have to be transformed into weapons and a path to victory for Ukraine on the battlefield.

This remarkable vote was accomplished via an intelligence-assisted Pauline conversion in House Speaker Mike Johnson, a determined push by less than half the Republican caucus and support across the aisle from almost the entire Democratic side of the House. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the GOP’s presumptive presidential candidate, was distracted by his legal entanglements.

….


Inside House Speaker Mike Johnson’s conversion on aid for Ukraine

Breakthrough move to hold vote followed campaign by evangelical Christians and intelligence chiefs

By Lauren Fedor and James Politi

https://www.ft.com/content/842cd90e-ca83-48e3-af8e-1f086d223db

In the last week of February, a large billboard appeared across the street from Mike Johnson’s home church in Benton, Louisiana.

“For such a time as this,” it read, quoting a Bible verse alongside an image of a damaged Baptist church in Berdyansk, Ukraine. It addressed Johnson by name.

The advertisement was paid for by Razom, a Ukrainian human rights group, and appealed to Johnson’s deep Christian faith — and his power as Speaker of the House of Representatives to secure billions of dollars in US funding for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The campaign paid off last week, when Johnson shocked Washington and US allies around the world by allowing the House to vote for that aid, unblocking $95bn in funds for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.


The Senate also passed the package on Tuesday night, allowing President Joe Biden to sign it into law on Wednesday. The Pentagon immediately announced $1bn in weaponry from US military stockpiles would be sent immediately — crucial support just as Russian forces threaten to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.


It marks a huge U-turn for Johnson, who had previously voted repeatedly against Ukraine aid, and for months used his power as Speaker to block a vote on new support. And it culminates a months-long, behind-the-scenes campaign by intelligence chiefs, White House officials, European diplomats and evangelical Christians from Ukraine to persuade him.


People close to Johnson insist that he has long been sympathetic to the Ukrainian people’s plight and spent recent months trying to find a way forward to satisfy feuding factions within the Republican party, including isolationists who have threatened to oust him over his support for Ukraine.

“He has never had a lack of clarity about who is right and wrong in this conflict,” said one person close to Johnson.

Notice how both these ‘news stories’, commentaries are framed by vulgarized Theology. Also note that the Lauren Fedor & James Politi essay relies on gossip: ‘said one person close to Johnson.’

Political Observer

P.S. I have deliberately fore-shortened these political interventions ! The Reader is most capable, of reading for herself this ‘political reporting’ and come the her own conclusions!

‘’Polemic is a discourse of conflict, whose effect depends on a delicate balance between the requirements of truth and the enticements of anger, the duty to argue and the zest to inflame. Its rhetoric allows, even enforces, a certain figurative licence. Like epitaphs in Johnson’s adage, it is not under oath.’

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v15/n20/perry-anderson/diary

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@BerkowitzPeter on ‘Philip Howard Aims To Enhance Freedom by Restoring Authority’.

Old Socialist comments.

I am not a subscriber to ‘Real Clear Politics’ , but somehow I am on their mailing list. Today I explored the web site, and one of the essays caught my interest:

‘Philip Howard Aims To Enhance Freedom by Restoring Authority’ by Peter Berkowitz.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/04/21/philip_howard_aims_to_enhance_freedom_by_restoring_authority_150829.html

The first sentence of Berkowitz’s essay offers both ‘The New Right’ & ‘the progressive left’ : Reader first note, the upper case of ‘The New Right’ and the lower case reserved for ‘the progressive left’, as a way to minimize, to place in shadow, as opposed to the revelation of ‘The New Right’ ! ‘Largely unbeknownst to themselves’ places both ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ in the category of unconscious political actors, is more Berkowitz rhetorical chicanery?

Largely unbeknownst to themselves, influential segments of the New Right and the progressive left share a deep-seated – and delusive – belief. Both suppose that freedom – in the form of the equal individual rights promised by America’s founding principles – on the one hand, and traditional virtues and tight-knit local communities, on the other, are implacably opposed. The more you have of one, prominent figures on the right and on the left surmise, the less you have of the other.

They draw, however, opposite conclusions from their common conviction. Prizing virtue and community, national conservatives and postliberals on the right blame individual freedom for hollowing out the public good and diverting attention from citizens’ character, and they would wield government to uphold their religious convictions and the moral judgments that flow from them. Valuing autonomy, ideologues and activists of the progressive left seek to emancipate individuals from the constraints of venerable duties and inherited ways of life.

One can take too far the observation about the partisans’ strange convergence. After all, the New Right affirms the right of national self-determination and that public policy should reflect that human beings are equally created in God’s image. Meanwhile, the progressive left employs government authority to curtail free speech in the name of inclusiveness. But on the whole, both believe that one must choose: freedom and individual rights or virtue and community.

I’ve placed in italics of some of the Berkowitz’s arcane, or just dubious political vocabulary e.g. national conservatives postliberals , as co much techo-chatter, for want of a better descriptor ! Peter Berkowitz is a ‘senior fellow at the Hoover Institution’ who understands the value of propaganda, in the guise of book review, that acts the part of literary criticism, wedded to verifiable good of the restoration of ‘Authority’! In his next paragraph Mr. Berkowitz mentions both John Locke and Aristotle as part of ‘our political/moral inheritance’, I will offer the caveat that both of these Philosophers need careful laundering.

From the perspective of America’s founding principles, that is a false choice. The founders generally shared John Locke’s view – which reflects The author of several books dealing with institutions, laws, and practices that have distorted society, eroded freedom, and misshaped morals, Howard is also a lawyer and chair of Common Good, a nonpartisan organization that endeavors to replace bureaucracy with human responsibility .and Aristotle’s understanding – that freedom, the virtues, and community are mutually dependent: freedom makes possible the exercise of virtue and the preservation of communities while individuals acquire in communities the virtues that enable them to maintain and improve free institutions.


Locke:

Abstract:

Locke owned stock in slave trading companies and was secretary of the Lords Proprietors of the Carolinas, where slavery was constitutionally permitted. He had two notions of slavery: legitimate slavery was captivity with forced labor imposed by the just winning side in a war; illegitimate slavery was an authoritarian deprivation of natural rights. Locke did not try to justify either black slavery or the oppression of Amerindians. In The Two Treatises of Government, Locke argued against the advocates of absolute monarchy. The arguments for absolute monarchy and colonial slavery turn out to be the same. So in arguing against the one, Locke could not help but argue against the other. Examining the natural rights tradition to which Locke’s work belongs confirms this. Locke could have defended colonial slavery by building on popular ideas of his colleagues and predecessors, but there is no textual evidence that he did that or that he advocated seizing Indian agricultural land.

https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/28299/chapter-abstract/214977811?redirectedFrom=fulltext

April 24, 2024: ‘Locke could have defended colonial slavery…?


Aristotle

Abstract

Aristotle’s claim that natural slaves do not possess autonomous rationality (Pol. 1.5, 1254b20-23) cannot plausibly be interpreted in an unrestricted sense, since this would conflict with what Aristotle knew about non-Greek societies. Aristotle’s argument requires only a lack of autonomous practical rationality. An impairment of the capacity for integrated practical deliberation, resulting from an environmentally induced excess or deficiency in thumos (Pol. 7.7, 1327b18-31), would be sufficient to make natural slaves incapable of eudaimonia without being obtrusively implausible relative to what Aristotle is likely to have believed about non-Greeks. Since Aristotle seems to have believed that the existence of people who can be enslaved without injustice is a hypothetical necessity, if those capable of eudaimonia are to achieve it, the existence of natural slaves has implications for our understanding of Aristotle’s natural teleology.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/33039745_Aristotle_on_Natural_Slavery


Christian teaching

This speaks for itself!


Mr. Berkowitz’s 1478 word essay, has been reduced to 836 words remaining. Mr. Berkowitz is a Neo-Conservative, or its cognate, whose political/moral imperative is to the muddy the rhetorical waters, just enough to make his arguments seem plausible! The Ideas, Philosophies of these paradigmatic Thinkers/Writers are tainted, as my sources make clear: if The Reader attaches herself to something like Truth or even mere plausibility. I’ll pick through the arguments remaining, and without apology, it will be self-serving, but I think revelatory of Mr. Berkowitz’s defence of a needed re-invigoration of ‘Authority’.

…fruitful expression in cooperation is central to Philip K. Howard’s succinct new book. In “Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society,” Howard maintains that throughout contemporary public life, “Americans have lost the authority to do what they think is sensible.” Restoring that authority, he argues, will enhance individual freedom.

The author of several books dealing with institutions, laws, and practices that have distorted society, eroded freedom, and misshaped morals, Howard is also a lawyer and chair of Common Good, a nonpartisan organization that endeavors to replace bureaucracy with human responsibility.

Howard focuses on the corrosion of the culture of freedom in post-1960s America. This may sound odd since that decade is famously associated with rebellion against traditional norms and practices.

The post-1960s assault on freedom flowed from good intentions, he asserts.

But, Howard maintains, the technocratic mindset overreached.

Howard identifies “three new legal mechanisms” that government and business have implemented since the 1960s to protect the American people from abusive authority.

The purpose of comprehensively regulating conduct through elaborate rules, extensive procedures, and a vast array of rights – you could call it the juridification of public life – reflected the high-minded aspiration “to enhance freedom by reducing any wiggle room for bias, unfairness, or error.”

The long-term consequences of the juridification of public life, argues Howard, have been pernicious. The expansion of law and regulation – notwithstanding the aspiration to fairness – suppresses spontaneity, constricts intuition and common sense, fosters conformity, promotes indiscriminate distrust of authority, discourages people from taking ownership of their actions, and erodes appreciation of the common good.

“The cure is not mainly new policies, but new legal operating structures that re-empower Americans in their everyday choices,” Howard contends.

Howard proposes an alternative framework. To preserve and enlarge “everyday freedom,” this new legal architecture would establish “boundaries safeguarding against unreasonable acts.”

Since judgment on the spot is crucial to most human activities – in the family, within communities, on the job – law that empowers individuals to use their common sense would not only expand freedom but also improve outcomes.

“Everyday freedom requires not only a zone of protected autonomy, but also trust that other people will abide by the reasonable values of society.”

Although it cuts against the grain of contemporary legal sensibilities, argues Howard, “people with responsibility must be empowered to assert norms of what’s right and reasonable, and they must be free to make judgments about the people they work with.”

This freedom to exercise authority allowed supervisors and workers to use their discretion, find creative solutions, and work unimpeded by bureaucratic meddling and endless demands for permits and licenses.

The last paragraphs of Mr. Berkowitz’s essay are platitudinous at best, yet he still can’t let go of the bad actors, in this dubious Political Melodrama : ‘The New Right’ , in upper case & ‘the progressive left’ in lower case, that exemplifies his political/rhetorical bad faith!

To deserve, in the name of the protection of everyday freedom, the greater authority and discretion that Howard would entrust to them, public officials and ordinary citizens must acquire a range of virtues: the imagination to put themselves in other people’s shoes; the diligence to do their homework and devise feasible undertakings, measures, and reforms; the courage to stand by correct but unpopular decisions; and the grace to admit when they are wrong and correct course.

The American political tradition teaches that the cultivation of these virtues, which are essential to the responsible exercise of everyday freedom, depends on strong families, vibrant communities, and schools dedicated to education rather than indoctrination.

Contrary, then, to influential elements within both the New Right and the progressive left, reconciling freedom, on the one hand, and virtue and community, on the other, does not call for squaring a circle but rather embracing a package deal.

Political Observer

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Melanie Phillips: ‘How Conservatism’s Chickens Came Home to Roost in Gaza’

Political Observer comments.

Melanie Phillips opens her diatribe with these markers, this hysterical collection of ‘charges’ against a people subject to 75 years of subjugation, oppression, dispossession, incarceration, kidnap, murder. And in the present to Geocide and Famine, charges that Phillips vehemently denies, based on denial, alone!

The Enemy of Civilization

The malign malignant attack

Genocide of the Jews

The War against The West

War against Israel

The War against Civilization

Phillips is, along with other Jews, are given the role of Victim, as in the six charges above! Phillips also attacks an amorphous, ill defined ‘Left’, the Tories and some of the attendees at the Conference she is addressing. A 25 minute speech consisting of repetitions, reframed as need be, to fit the evolving rhetorical imperatives of propaganda!

Here is a valuable paper by Ewa Latecka, Department of Philosophy and Applied Ethics, Faculty of Arts, University of Zululand, KZN

Political Observer

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The Would-Be Poetry of @rcolvile is irresistible?

Political Observer wonders at this short lived ‘evolution’!

The first paragraphs demonstrate a remarkable ‘evolution’, that reminds this American Reader of Rod McKuen’s ‘Listen to the Warm’ of 1967! He was reported to be Elizbeth Taylor’s favorite Poet! Mr. Colvile poetic reach, not to speak of his blend of ‘The Eclipse’ , the political with popular entertainment of the moment, lends a certain elan !

For medieval peasants a solar eclipse was a certain sign of the apocalypse. A 14th-century text, “The Fifteen Signs before Doomsday”, explained that the sun “will give no light and will be cast down to Earth — while you now see it as pleasing and bright, it will become as black as coal”.

For Tory MPs there is no need to watch the heavens to predict the end: they just have to look at the polls. The Conservative rating of 19 per cent in Ipsos’s Political Monitor is the lowest since the survey started in 1978. Rishi Sunak’s personal favourability has hit a historic low, too — yet the same polls suggest that changing leader would do little to help.

Indeed, a better parallel than the Middle Ages may be Fallout, the big new show on Amazon Prime, in which a mismatched group of characters have to navigate a derelict, post-nuclear hellscape.

Admittedly, those Conservative MPs that do make it back into parliament may not have to grapple with flesh-eating ghouls, mutated fish monsters and murderous robots. But on present polling it’s looking like about as much fun.

Yet in politics, as in Fallout’s wasteland, life always goes on. Which is why thoughts are already turning to what comes next.

Unfortunately, Mr. Colvile then touches the ground of reality, in the political present, I’ll attempt a foreshortened collection of the ‘highlights’ :

With the signal exception of Suella Braverman, the main contenders for the Tory leadership after the election are still supportive of Sunak,…

….

…Conservative Home’s survey of Tory members, vindicated by the Cass review on transgender care for under-18s, giving a punchy speech on regulation and growth and using the free vote on the smoking ban to express principled opposition to creating two categories of legal adults.

Yet the more I think about the Conservative Party’s plight, the more questions of personality feel almost irrelevant.

We don’t need to rehearse all the reasons for the Tories’ spectacular — and historically unprecedented — slide in the polls.

The Conservatives have lost voters to both left and right,…

The Tory party, as one of its senior members told me the other day, is made up of three tribes.

Editor: The Three Tribes:

the soft centre

“the wets”

There are those (like me) who prioritize free markets and economic opportunity.

…Conservatism is cultural, inspired by faith, family and flag.

Editor : Perhaps I don’t understand British Counting, it looks like 4 to me!

Of course, these tendencies mix and mingle, often within the same individuals.

Editor: Liz Truss is entitled to her own section!

…Liz Truss complains that during the Brexit referendum, in which she campaigned for Remain, “Vote Leave’s main campaign message … was simply a pledge to increase public spending on the NHS. This seemed an odd rallying cry for free-market conservatives.”

The brutal truth — much as Truss and I would both wish it otherwise — is that messaging tailored to free-market conservatives barely wins you a majority among Tory MPs these days, let alone the wider electorate.

Assuming that the polls do narrow (as I still suspect they will), there will be enough of a core for the Tories to rebuild after their likely loss.

I mentioned Fallout earlier. It’s a hit show. But the audience for even the biggest hits today is a fraction of what it was in the four-channel days. We’re a multiculture, not a monoculture. So why should political parties be an exception?

But that majority also relied on the electoral steroids provided by Corbyn and Brexit. Even without the stream of shocks and scandals that followed, it would have been hellishly difficult to keep that coalition together.

There is, of course, one consolation: the same probably applies to Labour. That may seem a strange claim, given Keir Starmer’s position in the polls. But that lead is built on dislike of the Tories, not enthusiasm for the other lot.

Owen Jones, the leftie’s leftie, has already departed in high dudgeon, because a Labour Party that moves far enough right to win a majority has gone beyond the ideological pale for the Corbyn lot.

I’ve always been a strong supporter of first past the post. I still am.

Fixing them will take serious reforms, as it did under Thatcher — a topic I’ve been reading about in depth, given that I run the Centre for Policy Studies, the think tank she and her allies founded to do that job 50 years ago.

How, for example, do you persuade an electorate that is increasingly dependent on the state that there are limits to not just what it can do, but what it should do?

If rebuilding a majority Conservatism is a hard task, building one that also addresses Britain’s core challenges feels even harder. Yet it’s a job that absolutely needs to be done.


@rcolvile self-presents as a modern day Sisyphus?

Political Observer

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@nytdavidbrooks on ‘Transgender Care’ .

Queer Atheist offers a selective commentary.

The first paragraphs of the Brooks’ essay don’t quite give the game away :

Hilary Cass is the kind of hero the world needs today. She has entered one of the most toxic debates in our culture: how the medical community should respond to the growing numbers of young people who seek gender transition through medical treatments, including puberty blockers and hormone therapies. This month, after more than three years of research, Cass, a pediatrician, produced a report, commissioned by the National Health Service in England, that is remarkable for its empathy for people on all sides of this issue, for its humility in the face of complex social trends we don’t understand and for its intellectual integrity as we try to figure out which treatments actually work to serve those patients who are in distress. With incredible courage, she shows that careful scholarship can cut through debates that have been marked by vituperation and intimidation and possibly reset them on more rational grounds.

Cass, a past president of Britain’s Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health, is clear about the mission of her report: “This review is not about defining what it means to be trans, nor is it about undermining the validity of trans identities, challenging the right of people to express themselves or rolling back on people’s rights to health care. It is about what the health care approach should be, and how best to help the growing number of children and young people who are looking for support from the N.H.S. in relation to their gender identity.”

Should this surprise The Reader? Brooks is smitten by evocatively presented ‘Credentials’ ! I’ve placed in bold font the Brooks anti-left hysteria. Brooks was trained by Wm. F. Buckley Jr. , in sum the ‘left’ is mendacious by nature. Yet ‘Some activists and medical practitioners on the left’ : this defamation defended by a ‘2022 Reuters investigation , prefaced by the modifier ‘some’ !

Some activists and medical practitioners on the left have come to see the surge in requests for medical transitioning as a piece of the new civil rights issue of our time — offering recognition to people of all gender identities.

But a 2022 Reuters investigation found that some American clinics were quite aggressive with treatment: None of the 18 U.S. clinics that Reuters looked at performed long assessments on their patients, and some prescribed puberty blockers on the first visit.

Where might The Reader look for another perspective ?

Headline: What the Cass Review Means for Trans Kids in Britain—and Beyond

Sub-headline: A new review of gender-affirming healthcare in England could change the way gender-questioning children and young everywhere people receive care. .

By Natasha Hakimi Zapata

Astronomical waiting times are just one of the failures the Cass Review identifies, highlighting that during these limbo periods, children are not offered any sort of support, including mental health services. This is especially egregious considering the NHS’s own Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch told Reuters in 2022 that the “‘incredibly distressing’ wait for gender care ‘created a significant patient safety risk for young people.’” There have been a number of suicides linked to waiting times, including Alice Litman, a 20-year-old who’d first sought gender-affirming care at age 15, and was still on a waiting list for more than 1,000 days when she died.

The review’s publication also comes as the country grapples with a stark rise in anti-trans hate crimes amid what Cass herself labeled the “exceptional” “toxicity of the debate” on trans youth healthcare. While some, like Kamran Abbasi, editor in chief of the The BMJ (formerly the British Medical Journal), see the Cass Review as “an opportunity to pause, recalibrate, and place evidence-informed care at the heart of gender medicine,” Amnesty International has warned that it is already being “weaponised by people who revel in spreading disinformation and myths about healthcare for trans young people”. The Scottish author J.K. Rowling has already taken a victory lap on Twitter/X. In an election year, the independent review is also being misused by beleaguered Tories who, like the US right, have resorted to stoking culture wars to distract from dire conditions caused by their policy decisions over nearly 15 years.

It’s not just British anti-trans groups that could “weaponize” it, either. American LBGTQ+ activist and civil rights attorney Alejandra Caraballo has been paying close attention to the Cass Review from across the Atlantic, because the legal expert has identified a disturbing trend in recent years.

“Prominent anti-trans cases in Finland, Sweden, and especially the UK have been cited in US courts,” Caraballo told The Nation. It’s only a matter of time, she believes, before the Cass Review is used in American legal cases looking to further restrict trans rights.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, after years of mounting letdowns, the Cass Review has already transformed the country’s approach to gender dysphoria. It remains to be seen however, when it comes to the well-being of trans children and teens, whether those changes will be for better or for worse.

What is happening is that the Acolytes of The Abrahamic Tradition ,and their Hetero- Traditionalists allies, are in a panic: that the continuing evolution of Human Kind, can now exercise 1it’s freedom to choose who and what 2‘it’ aspires to be, outside those hallowed ‘Norms’ ,equal to un-reflective conformity!

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‘It’s to lapse into Hegelian pastiche

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‘It’s to lapse into Hegelian pastiche

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Martin Wolf’s hand-wringing: ‘The shadow of war darkens on the global economy’ …

Political Observer offers a ‘selective reading’.

The first paragraphs of Mr. Wolf’s essay that presents the players in this Political Melodrama: Iran is guilty of ‘escalation’ and Benjamin Netanyahu is an embattled prime minister, no matter how crudely introduced, the protagonists sets the parameters of this essay:

The decision by Iran to escalate its conflict with Israel by launching a barrage of armed drones and missiles brings the risks of open war between the two countries, possibly involving the US, yet closer. It is no secret, after all, that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s embattled prime minister, has long wished to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. Some in the US feel similarly. Is this not the hawks’ chance?

In a column published in October 2023, I argued that such an escalation was the principal danger to the world economy posed by the murderous attack on Israel by Hamas. Even though the oil-intensity of the world economy has more than halved over the past 50 years, oil remains an essential source of energy. Severe disruption to supply would have large adverse economic effects.

The alarm is sounded : ‘the principal danger to the world economy’ is the central concern to Mr. Wolf. The commentary is held aloft via a collection of evocative full color Charts and Graphs:

Economic performance in 2022 and 2023 tended to be better than forecast in October 2022


Global energy prices have been substantially lower than forecast in October 2022


Shares of fixed-rate mortgages have reached high level in many countries


High-income economies are losing their post pandemic savings buffer


The growth of total factor productivity since the global financial crisis has fallen sharply across the world


The ratio of world trade to output has stabilized rather than fallen


For the confused Reader, let me offer these chapter from Deirdre N. McCloskey book ‘The Rhetoric Of Economics’:


The final paragraphs of Mr. Wolf’s essay: call it a parade of well worn cliches!

On the upside, we might see a short-term surge in election-related fiscal loosening. Positive surprises, notably in labour supply, might further accelerate the decline in inflation. Artificial intelligence might deliver a positive surprise shock to the generally poor productivity growth. Successful reform might also accelerate the growth in potential output. Yet, on the downside, China’s growth might fall sharply. There are also all too evident risks to global financial, fiscal, political and geopolitical stability. World trade might be battered by protectionism. War between Israel, the US and Iran could blow up the Middle East, with huge consequences for energy and commodity prices. The biggest victims of such mayhem would, as usual, be the poorest.

We may have managed shocks better than expected. But we are walking on eggshells and must tread carefully.

Political Observer

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@tomfriedman & Bret Stephens offer ‘The New York Times Point of View’ on the Iranian- what to name it ‘reprisal’, ‘comeuppance’, ‘justice’ ?

Political Observer edits the chatter!

Thomas Friedman offers this:

It would be easy to be dazzled by the way Israeli, American and other allied militaries shot down virtually every Iranian drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile launched at Israel on Saturday and conclude that Iran had made its point — retaliating for Israel’s allegedly killing a top Iranian commander operating against Israel from Syria — and now we can call it a day.

That would be a dangerous misreading of what just happened and a huge geopolitical mistake by the West and the world at large.

There now needs to be a massive, sustained, global initiative to isolate Iran — not only to deter it from trying such an adventure again but also to give reason to Israel not to automatically retaliate militarily. That would be a grievous error, too. Iran has a regional network, and Israel needs a regional alliance, along with the U.S., to deter it over the long run.

So there must be major diplomatic and economic consequences for Iran, with countries like China finally stepping up: When Tehran fired all those drones and missiles, it could not know that virtually all of them would be intercepted. Some were shot down over Jerusalem. A missile could have hit al-Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam’s holiest shrines. (You can see pictures online of Iranian rockets being intercepted in the skies right over the mosque.) Another could have hit the Israeli Parliament or a high-rise apartment house, causing massive casualties.

No one should think Iran is just a paper tiger. Tehran can still unleash thousands of shorter-range rockets against Israel through Hezbollah — and because some of these rockets have precision guidance, they could do significant damage to Israel’s infrastructure. Iran has bigger missiles in its arsenal, as well.

Still, what happened Saturday is ultimately a significant boost for what I call the Inclusion Network in the Middle East (more open, connected countries like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel and the NATO allies) and a real setback for the Resistance Network (the closed and autocratic systems represented by Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran’s Shiite militias in Iraq) and Russia. The sound within Iran and the Resistance Network on Sunday morning is that sound you hear from your car’s GPS after a wrong turn: “Recalculating, recalculating, recalculating.”

Mr. Friedman is writer given to Zionist Apologetics/Propaganda, and the manufacture of puerile Catch-Phrases: ‘The Inclusion Network’ ‘The Resistance Network’ a reductivist pastiche of actual thought!

Bret Stephens offers this:

After several days during which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei repeatedly vowed that “the evil Zionist regime” would be punished for its April 1 attack on Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus that killed seven Iranian military advisers, including three top commanders, the Islamic Republic struck. More than 300 drones and missiles launched from Iranian soil took aim at Israel on Saturday. Nearly all of them were intercepted, mainly by Israeli or American defenses, with a report of just one Israeli casualty, a girl from a Bedouin community wounded by shrapnel.

Will that be the end of it?

It’s no secret that Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for decades. The weekend attack is notable for two reasons: its directness and its ineffectuality. Iranian military commanders undoubtedly understood that most of their slow-moving drones, about 170 in all, would be shot down before reaching their targets. They were a diversion. Those commanders were probably more surprised that their 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles also did negligible damage.

That should drive home a clear lesson to Iran’s leaders: They are no technological match for the Jewish state, especially when the United States is lending a hand. If Israel decides to respond to the attack with direct strikes on Iran — perhaps against oil installations, nuclear sites or military infrastructure — it isn’t likely to miss its targets.

The reader/viewer might look to an actual expert Scott Ritter, being interviewed by George Galloway, that explores the questions raised by the Iranian attack on Israel?

Mr Stephens is a notorious Zionist partisan/apologist. Ritter an expert in Warfare. Stephens is a New York Times opinion writer. Expertise vs. Opinion?

The final two paragraphs of The Stephens Melodrama. The Neo-Conservative wallows in war mongering brio, without the actual experience of battle, that Ernst Jünger’s ‘Storm of Steele’ offers the reader!

Nor is it to say that Israel doesn’t deserve President Biden’s full support if it chooses to retaliate for Saturday’s attack. The Ayatollah Khamenei surely noted the friction between Israel and the West over Gaza when he ordered the strike; daylight between Israel and the United States is often an invitation to mischief by the common enemies of both. The president has political reasons to avoid another full-scale regional war in an election year. But the best way to avert such a war is to leave Tehran with no illusions that it could separate Israel from the United States by starting one.

The key decisions of the past half-century that have driven the Middle East to the place it is in today have a common origin: Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979, which brought to power a theocratic despotism intent on sowing fanaticism, brutalizing its own people, destroying Israel and causing misery across the region for the sake of its ideological aims. Saturday’s missile attack is the latest example of a long and ugly record. But as Israelis decide how to react, they would serve their interests best by recalling the useful adage that revenge is a dish best served cold.

Political Observer

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