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Jan 14, 2026

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Where does Iran go from here?

Zanny Minton Beddoes

Editor-in-chief

Two months ago I asked readers of this newsletter whether they thought Iran’s regime would survive the next five years. The results showed a near dead heat: 38% of voters thought the Islamic Republic would endure, 39% thought it wouldn’t and the remainder weren’t sure. Given the scale of the protests in recent weeks, the horrific violence of the crackdown in the past few days and the possibility of American intervention, I’d like to hear if our subscribers’ predictions have changed—please cast a fresh vote in our poll. How will it all end? That’s what I want to explore in tomorrow’s Insider show.

Iran has been shrouded by a state-imposed digital blackout since January 8th, making it difficult to accurately assess the scale of the protests and the brutality of the authorities’ response. But the information that has emerged—often via Iranians’ patchy access to illegal Starlink terminals—suggests that thousands have died so far. Washington DC, where I have been this week, is full of speculation about how and when Donald Trump might intervene. He has promised on Truth Social that “help is on its way”. It is hard to see how military force can directly help those demonstrating on the streets. Striking installations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for instance, is unlikely to paralyse the regime. Large-scale attacks could cause significant casualties. Nonetheless, if I were a betting person, I’d wager that Mr Trump will do something.

To help make sense of what has happened so far—and what might come next—I’ve invited two of our Middle East correspondents, Nick Pelham and Gregg Carlstrom, and Adam Roberts, our new foreign editor, to take part in tomorrow’s Insider show. They’ll join Edward Carr, my co-host and deputy editor, as we consider Iran’s path forward. Nick and Adam visited Tehran only two months ago and I want to ask them if they had an inkling then that this sort of unrest was brewing and how it compares with the protests of 2022 and 2009. Nick has been reporting on Iran for 25 years and has many contacts there. I’m keen to know if he’s managed to reach them and, if so, what he’s heard about the situation on the ground. While in Washington this week, Nick and I took the opportunity to talk to Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran and son of the last shah, so we’ll also be hearing from him during the show. Some protesters have been calling for the return of Mr Pahlavi, who reportedly met with Steve Witkoff last weekend, but is he really a credible alternative to the ayatollahs? I’ll be asking the panel to weigh in.

My colleagues and I will also assess the likelihood and prudence of foreign involvement in Iran. What would a Trumpian intervention look like? Perhaps an attempt to repeat a Venezuela-style raid? Perhaps a back-room deal is being cooked up with some elements of the regime? Mr Trump will be attending the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, making a big speech in front of the business world’s elite. I can imagine how he would relish the opportunity to show off American power once again.

I’ll wrap up tomorrow’s show by asking my colleagues what they expect to see happen now. The situation in Iran is highly uncertain, but what are the possible scenarios? Is a democratic transition still a pipe dream? Are there figures within the regime who could bring about change? My team will be answering these questions and yours too. Please tell us what you want to know via the Q&A feature on the episode page and, once you’ve watched the show, please write to me with your thoughts at insider@economist.com. See you tomorrow.

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