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Mar 10, 2025

Leaders | The death of giving

The demise of foreign aid offers an opportunity

Donors should focus on what works. Much aid currently does not

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What does Russia want? Some reports in recent days have suggested that Mr Putin may be open to a truce under certain conditions. But the game unfolding may well be more sophisticated and cynical than that. A highly-placed source close to the Kremlin suggests Russia intends to demand a Ukrainian declaration of neutrality, and that foreign peacekeepers be ruled out. It is probably impossible for Ukraine to even consider such conditions—at least not before real negotiations have even begun. Kurt Volker, who served as Special Representative to Ukraine in Mr Trump’s first administration, says Russia will twist any truce proposal. “They’ll say: we can’t agree to that, but let’s do something else. Putin is smart enough not to just say no.” A former Ukrainian diplomat says American and Russia have been mirroring each others’ tactics, “salami-slicing” concessions from Ukraine before substantial negotiations begin. Any subsequent talks will seek to move further into Ukrainian red lines. The American end game has become a moving target, he says.

Any successful and enduring peace deal would require America to put pressure on the Kremlin to comply and then continue to do so. On March 7th Mr Trump did threaten to impose major sanctions on Russia. But most of the evidence suggests that he is sympathetic to Mr Putin. Hours later Mr Trump said “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine…In terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia.” Mr Volker says that “Trump is trying to keep Ukraine on a short leash because he wants them to accept whatever peace he can get…the Ukrainians are the obstacle because they’re not surrendering.”

A senior Ukrainian security official says he has seen no evidence that the Americans are contemplating a complete exit from Ukraine, yet, let alone Europe. “The hope is that as soon as we have a truce, we’ll be on a more rational track again,” he says.

Others are less sanguine. The dangerous prospect looms for Ukraine that failed talks could trigger even more pressure from America. Another Ukrainian official warns that America’s approach, if it continues, could leave Ukraine in a “grey zone”. That would force it to use more vicious military tactics for its survival. Already, he says, strong personalities dominate the negotiations, adding a Ukrainian proverb: “Yake yikhalo, take y zdybalo” (like attracts like). The stakes of Tuesday’s talks could not be higher. If they collapse, Ukraine is unlikely to get another chance: “The Americans will double down on instructional mode, and force whatever they and Russia decide on us.” ■

Editor : Reader please note that actors in this portion of this ‘Economist Report’, are Vladimir Putin, Kurt Volker, Donald Trump and ‘and various unidentified Ukanian officials’ ! and a Ukrainian proverb: “Yake yikhalo, take y zdybalo” (like attracts like).

Editor’s note (March 10th 2025): This story was amended in order to make clearer that Ukraine occupies only a part of the Kursk region.

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