Political Cynic comments.
Here is a portion of The Economist essay of June 24, 2023: This appears to be one of The Economists Readymades, hastily stitched up for the occasion.
Europe | Rebellion in Russia
The Wagner Group halts its march on Moscow
Vladimir Putin appears to have survived the greatest threat to his rule. But for how much longer?
he threat of armed insurrection against Vladimir Putin abated on June 24th as suddenly and dramatically as it had erupted. In the morning Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, sent his armoured columns on a 1,000km race to Moscow, claiming to come within 200km and causing alarm in the Kremlin. But by evening he ordered his war-hardened veterans to turn back, saying he did not want to spill Russian blood. Social-media reports suggest his fighters were starting to pull back. A Kremlin spokesman said Mr Prigozhin would leave for Belarus.
Precisely what Mr Prigozhin hoped to achieve through his insurrection, and what he might actually have obtained, remains unclear. On one telling, Mr Prigozhin bowed before the might of the Russian state and is lucky to be alive. On another, given the extraordinary ease with which he rolled towards Moscow, he may have extracted some as-yet-unspecified deal on, say, military leadership. Either way, Mr Putin has shown he can no longer maintain order among his warlords. He has been greatly weakened by the challenge—and in his world weakness tends to lead to further instability.
…
In a hastily arranged address to the nation the rattled president had accused Wagner of planting “a knife in the back” of troops fighting in Ukraine and vowed a “harsh” response. Mr Prigozhin retorted that his men were “patriots” fighting for Russia’s future. In Moscow, Red Square was closed as the mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, announced “counter-terrorist operations”. The Kremlin denied speculation that Mr Putin had left Moscow, after plane-tracking data suggested the presidential aircraft had flown north before switching off its transponder and going dark.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/24/the-wagner-group-halts-its-march-on-moscow
The Front Page of the New York Times of June 25, 2023:
Mark Galeotti in The Times of June 24, 2023:
Headline: Is this the end for Putin?
Sub-headline: When history records the downfall of the Russian president, it will say the endgame started here, writes Mark Galeotti
With armoured vehicles on the streets of Moscow, two Russian cities in the hands of rebel mercenaries and questions about the loyalty of his security forces, President Putin is facing the most serious challenge of his 23 years in power.
Even if the immediate crisis may be defused thanks to the intervention of Belarusian president Lukashenko, the damage is done. When history records his downfall, it will say the endgame began here.
Galeotti engages in hyperbole first, aided by his habit of using subtitles in his essay, it is a reduction that mimic’s the Chapters of a book… it imparts a certain resonance.
Leader the Kremlin created
A problem with numbers
No mercy for traitors
1917 all over again?
Absent leader now in firing line
The reader can make her own determination of the value of Galeotti’s Historical pastiche.
Here is a portion of a Galeotti essay of February 18, 2023:
Headline: Isolated, out of touch, but clinging on: how Russians see Putin
Sub-headline: A year on from the disastrous invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin could be just one crisis away from collapse
Vladimir Putin is notorious for asking Russian historians how he will be judged a hundred years hence. With his invasion of Ukraine, he has ensured that he will be assessed a failure, an example of the way hubris can devour any initial successes.
Had Putin chosen to step down at the end of his second presidential term, in 2008, it is likely he would be remembered as someone who dragged Russia back from the brink of collapse, even if often by brutal methods.
He then spent four years running the country behind his proxy-president Dmitry Medvedev before returning to the Kremlin. Had he retired after his third term in 2018, he would have left a Russia in dispute with Ukraine and the West, but in possession of Crimea. As it was, though, he was not content, and let his desperation to leave his mark on history drive him to fatal overreach.
Prof. Galeotti is a ‘‘Senior Associate Fellow’ at RUSI’
…
All of the above lacks empirical evidence, because it is based on Galeotti’s Mastery of Putinology After the introductory paragraphs Prof. Galeotti provides subject headings to frame his arguments: Yet The Critical Reader might wonder at Prof. Galeotti as a ‘Senior Associate Fellow’ at RUSI:
‘ABOUT RUSI‘
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. Our mission is to inform, influence and enhance public debate to help build a safer and more stable world.
Prof. Galeotti is a Government Employee, in a not very roundabout way. So this explanation of Prof. Galeotti‘s political standing provided by The Times is incomplete, in the most self-serving way.
Government employee @MarkGaleotti’s Putinology, @thetimes.
https://stephenkmacksd.substack.com/p/government-employee-markgaleottis
Political Cynic
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